INTRODUCTION by Bob van der Valk, Senior Editor  |  Bakken Oil Business Journal

“In October 2014 crude oil barrels went down 4M barrels/day from 1,186,228 to 1,182,174 barrels/day.  The drilling rig count dropped 2 from September to October, an additional 3 from October to November, and has since fallen 5 more from November to today. The number of well completions decreased from 193(final) in September to 134(preliminary) in October. Three significant forces are driving the slow-down: oil price, flaring reduction, and oil conditioning.”

NDIC Department of Mineral Resources Director’s Cut Newsletter
December 13, 2014 – Lynn Helms

Crude Oil production:
Sep Oil 35,586,832 barrels = 1,186,228 barrels/day
Oct Oil 36,647,393 barrels = 1,182,174 barrels/day (preliminary)
1,118,010 barrels per day or 95% from Bakken and Three Forks
64,164 barrels per day or 5% from legacy conventional pools

Natural Gas Production:
Sep Gas 42,400,766 MCF = 1,413,359 MCF/day
Oct Gas 44,317,381 MCF = 1,429,593 MCF/day (preliminary)(NEW all-time high)
Sep Producing Wells = 11,758
Oct Producing Wells = 11,892 (preliminary)(NEW all-time high)
8,406 wells or 71% are now unconventional Bakken – Three forks wells
3,486 wells or 29% produce from legacy conventional pools

Permits issued:
Sep Permitting: 261 drilling and 2 seismic
Oct Permitting: 328 drilling and 1 seismic
Nov Permitting: 235 drilling and 1 seismic (all time high was 370 in 10/2012)

Crude oil pricing:
Sep Sweet Crude Price = $74.85/barrel
Oct Sweet Crude Price = $68.94/barrel
Nov Sweet Crude Price = $60.61/barrel
Today Sweet Crude Price = $41.75/barrel (lowest since March 2009) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)

Rig Count:
Sep rig count 193
Oct rig count 191
Nov rig count 188
Today’s rig count is 183 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
The statewide rig count is down 16% from the high and in the five most active counties rig count is down as follows:
Divide -69% (high was 3/2013)
Dunn -26% (high was 6/2012)
McKenzie -15% (high was 1/2014)
Mountrail -20% (high was 6/2011)
Williams -16% (high was 10/2014)

Comments:
The drilling rig count dropped 2 from September to October, an additional 3 from October to November, and has since fallen 5 more from November to today. The number of well completions decreased from 193(final) in September to 134(preliminary) in October. Three significant forces are driving the slow-down: oil price, flaring reduction, and oil conditioning. Several operators have reported postponing completion work to achieve the NDIC gas capture goals. There were no major precipitation events, but there were 9 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work).

Over 95% of drilling still targets the Bakken and Three Forks formations.

The drillers outpaced completion crews in October. At the end of October there were about 650 wells waiting on completion services, an increase of 40.

Crude oil take away capacity is expected to remain adequate as long as rail deliveries to coastal refineries keep growing.

Rig count in the Williston Basin is set to fall rapidly during the first quarter of 2015. Utilization rate for rigs capable of 20,000+ feet is currently about 90%, and for shallow well rigs (7,000 feet or less) about 60%.

Drilling permit activity peaked in October as operators worked on their summer programs, planned locations for next winter, and adjusted capital budgets.

The number of rigs actively drilling on federal surface in the Dakota Prairie Grasslands is down from 6 to 3.

Activity on the Fort Berthold Reservation is as follows:
28 drilling rigs (11 on fee lands and 17 on trust lands)
386,679 barrels of oil per day (149,547 from trust lands & 237,131 from fee lands)
1,371 active wells (1,044 on trust lands & 327 on fee lands)
172 wells waiting on completion
346 approved drilling permits (306 on trust lands & 40 on fee lands)
1,997 additional potential future wells (1,224 on trust lands & 773 on fee lands)

Seismic activity is slowing down with 5 surveys active/recording, 1 remediating, 0 suspended, and 1 permitted. There are now 3 buried arrays in North Dakota for monitoring and optimizing hydraulic fracturing.

North Dakota leasing activity is very low, consisting mostly of renewals and top leases in the Bakken – Three Forks area.

US natural gas storage is now 10% below the five-year average indicating slowly increasing prices in the future. North Dakota shallow gas exploration could be economic at future gas prices. As you are aware there is some exploration underway in Emmons County. The first well will be on confidential status until 12/23/14.

The price of natural gas delivered to Northern Border at Watford City is down $0.76 to $2.98/MCF. This results in a current oil to gas price ratio of 14 to 1. The percentage of gas flared dropped to 22%. The Tioga gas plant remained below 70% of full capacity due to delayed expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea.
capture percentage was 78% with the daily volume of gas flared from Sep to Oct decreasing 32.8 MMCFD. The historical high flared percent was 36% in 09/2011.

Gas capture statistics are as follows:
Statewide 78%
Statewide Bakken 78%
Non-FBIR Bakken 79%
FBIR Bakken 75%
October 2014 capture target =74%
January 2015 capture target =77%

BLM revised final regulations for hydraulic fracturing on federal and Indian lands were sent to the White House Office of Management and Budget for interagency review on Oct 26 and Department of Interior continues to be committed to their goal of issuing a final rule by the end of 2014. After initial publication in 2012, BLM received over 177,000 comments and withdrew the rule. A new proposed rule was published in the federal register on 5/24/2013 and the comment period ended 8/23/2013. This time BLM received over 1.2 million comments. Thanks to all who provided comments in support of a “states first” policy.
BLM has started the process of new venting and flaring regulations with input sessions in Denver, Albuquerque, Dickinson, and Washington, DC.

EPA published an advanced notice of proposed rule-making to seek comment on the information that should be reported or disclosed for hydraulic fracturing chemical substances and mixtures and the mechanism for obtaining this information. The proposed rule-making is in response to a petition from Earthjustice and 114 other groups who are opposed to the use of the GWPC-IOGCC FracFocus website process of chemical disclosure and any type of trade secret protection for hydraulic fracturing fluid mixtures. These groups are requesting EPA regulation of chemical disclosure under the federal Toxic Substances Control Act.

“What we see is the technology is changing rapidly.
We want to stay at the forefront of that.”

Are regulatory updates across the Rockies states encouraging or hindering reusing produced water for fracking?
For us, in the Piceance basin, I’m going to say encouraging. The state is really supportive of water sharing agreements within the Piceance basin. So that’s a yes.

There is a lot of pressure towards reusing produced water for fracking currently – how can operators manage these pressures?
I believe most operators want to reuse their water, and for us there are regulatory pressures. Because we use slick water approach to complete our wells, it makes it easier for us to recycle our water. When you go to the front range, where operators’ chemistry requires a more complicated completion fluid, it becomes more difficult. So here, it’s very straightforward.
For us, there is a cost of recycling the produced water, but it makes more sense than pulling freshwater out of the river; this gives us a real advantage.

Water sources are under stress from industries besides the oil and gas industry, do you believe reusing produced water is the solution to water sourcing issues? Using produced water is a good option for all operators. Obviously, there are economic restraints depending on the quality of water you have to clean and where you have to take it to, to reuse it. Locally, we’re sensitive to the stress of sourcing freshwater – obviously in Colorado, water is key to everyone. We made the switch to recycling close to 100% of our produced water and really, in the local community’s eyes, it made sense. It’s something that we’re proud of.

Download the full interview here.

The Bakken Oil Business Journal is a Silver Level Sponsor for this event. See you there!

We, at the Bakken Oil Business Journal, offer our unambiguous support of a project important to meeting American energy needs, the Keystone XL Pipeline.

The Keystone XL Pipeline is a proposed 1,179 mile, 36-inch-diameter crude oil pipeline that goes through a number of states and provinces on its route south, including Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada, and Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska in the U.S. Along with transporting crude oil from Canada, the Keystone XL Pipeline will transport oil from producers in Texas, Oklahoma, Montana and North Dakota.

Building awareness of the need for smart policy about our land and waters and how drilling impacts them isn’t an easy sell in a state whose residents continue to derive so much personal financial benefit from the oil and gas industry.

In the matter of Keystone, the environmental lobby is just plain wrong, as it is a safe and needed addition to America’s network of pipelines that gets oil to market. And there is precious little evidence to the contrary.

Until alternative fuel sources become competitive in availability and cost with our existing carbon-based mainstream supply, we have little choice but to rely on fossil fuels. This pesky fact just can’t be denied. Surely, we hope that time will come sooner rather than later, and we heartily support government funding of innovation to speed arrival of that day. But even the most knowledgeable and enthusiastic of environmentalists know that day is not right around the corner.

In the meantime, regardless of the worldwide climate crisis in which we’re fully engaged, it’s in our collective interest to facilitate America’s relentless need for the oil that runs our cars, heats and cools our homes and powers our factories. The Keystone will facilitate this by getting oil extracted from the buried sands of our friendly Canadian neighbor, down to our U.S. refineries to be converted to gasoline and related products.

Recent, objective studies show Keystone to be the safest, most environmentally secure and least expensive means to get the product to market. And now that the U.S. State Department has announced it found no major basis to oppose the project after an intensive and long-awaited review, it’s time for President Obama to provide his needed seal of approval.

North Dakota Director’s Cut Newsletter – January 2014
NDIC Department of Mineral Resources – Lynn Helms

January 2014 – Total Crude Oil Production 28,926,977 barrels = 933,128 barrels/day.  The all-time high was 976,453 barrels in November 2013.

871,672 barrels per day or 93% were from Bakken and Three Forks Formations.
There are over 100 wells shut in for the Tioga gas plant conversion in an attempt to minimize flaring, but the biggest production impact story continues to be the weather. January temperatures were only 6 degrees below normal with only 3 days too cold for fracturing work, and there were no major snow events with 12 days of sustained wind chill speeds too high for well completion work.

Over 95% of drilling still targets the Bakken and Three Forks formations. At the end of January 2014 there were about 660 wells waiting on completion services, an increase of 25.

Crude oil take away capacity is expected remain adequate as long as rail deliveries to coastal refineries keep growing.

READ MORE.

For reasons of efficiency the Department of State is encouraging electronic submittal of comments through the federal government’s eRulemaking Portal. To submit comments electronically, visit this link: http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOS-2014-0003-0001

This is a 30-day public comment period and the deadline date is Friday, March 7th at 11:59 p.m. (EST).

Download Letter 1
Download Letter 2

Jobs:

• During construction, the report suggests that the project would support about 42,000 direct/indirect jobs, approximately $2 billion of earnings throughout the United States, and contribute about $3.4 billion to US GDP.

GHG:

• The Final SEIS finds if this project goes ahead, we will see fewer spills, fewer injuries, and fewer fatalities when compared to the alternative of transporting crude oil by rail. On top of that, this project will result in lower GHG emissions; the Final SEIS finds that under any of the alternative scenarios where the project is denied, you will see greater GHG emissions from the movement of this oil.
  • The updated analysis in the Final SEIS concludes that the proposed Project is unlikely to significantly affect the rate of extraction in the oil sands.

• The Final SEIS states that under any of the scenarios where the project is denied, GHG emissions from the movement of this oil would actually increase – 28 per cent more GHGs if all the oil is railed to the Gulf Coast, 42 per cent higher GHGs if a combination of rail and new pipelines is used.

Energy Security:

• The Keystone XL Pipeline will increase energy security, and with the growth of domestic production in the U.S. and Canada, connecting the third largest resource of oil in the world to the largest refining center in the world can do nothing but increase energy security.

• As the Final SEIS points out, the demand persists for imported heavy crude oil by U.S. refineries optimized to process heavy crude. As Canadian production of bitumen from the oil sands continues to grow, the vast majority is currently exported to the United States to be processed by U.S. refineries.
  • The U.S. is a net importer of crude oil. The International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) have both forecast that the U.S. will still need to import oil to meet its domestic demand for decades, despite growing oil production in the U.S. Today, the United States consumes 15 million barrels of oil per day and imports eight million barrels. The EIA forecast in 2012 stated that the U.S. will continue to import 7.5 million barrels of oil per day into 2035 to meet its needs.

Safety:

• As a Company, we are committed to doing the very best and we will continue to operate Keystone XL, once complete, in the safest and most efficient way that we can. It’s our commitment to the public, it’s our commitment to our customers, and it’s a commitment we take very seriously.
  • As stated in the Final SEIS, the U.S. Department of State, in consultation with PHMSA, has determined that incorporation of the 59 conditions would result in a Project that would have a degree of safety over any other typically constructed domestic oil pipeline system under current code.

Export:

• Keystone XL is not an export pipeline. The U.S. consumes 15 million barrels of oil a day and imports seven to eight million barrels. Both the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency predict America will continue to import millions of barrels of oil each day until at least 2040.

• So what we are really talking about is a choice – a choice made all that more relevant with the recent unrest in Syria and Egypt – do Americans want their crude oil from a friendly partner in Canada or will they continue to rely on unstable regions such as Venezuela and the Middle East? Based on consistent polls since 2011, the findings prove that the majority of Americans continue to support our project.

By:  Bob van der Valk

Since October 16, 2013 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil decreased in price from $102.49 to $94.11 a barrel, for an 8.2 percent loss, with more to come on the horizon.  Good news for consumers with oil companies having enough on hand in cash reserves to make it through yet another pricing adjustment as happened in July 2008.

The question on the Oil Producing Export Countries (OPEC) controlling the world’s energy market has been resolved.  It has been exactly 40 years since Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC imposed an embargo on exports of crude oil.  Since 1973 US consumers have seen gasoline prices go from $.369 to almost $5 per gallon.

Crude oil has rallied back up over to $100 a barrel since the early days of 2009 when West Texas Intermediate crude oil bottomed out at $32 a barrel.  Since then the price has been influenced by wars and rumors of wars as well as being threatened by domestic terrorist attacks such as the Boston Marathon bombing earlier this year.

More downside should be expected for crude oil and the dive is just beginning now. Major technical support lies at $60-$62, and oil may not bottom until it falls to as low as $40

The weekly Department of Energy inventory report shows a rise for seven straight weeks.  Last week, they rose 5.2 million barrels. Over the past four weeks, inventories have risen by 22 million barrels, the second largest increase since February 2009.

DOE Statistics for the Week Ending November 1, 2013:

Table covers crude oil and principal products.  Other products, including residual fuel oil and “other oils” are not shown, and changes in the stocks of these products are reflected in “Total Petroleum Products”. Statistics Source: Energy Information Administration “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” available at www.eia.doe.gov

With domestic oil production on the rise, the good news is North America will become energy secure by the end of 2014. OPEC has slowly been losing control on pricing the world’s crude oil requirements.

Bob van der Valk lives in Terry, Montana and is the Senior Editor of the Bakken Oil Business Journal as well as Fuel-pricing Analyst for US petroleum distributors and retail station owners. He can be contacted at:  editor@bakkenoilbiz.com

Current slate of locations skips coal country altogether

HELENA – Today, Montana Attorney General Tim Fox asked U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Gina McCarthy to add Montana to the agency’s listening sessions on coal regulations. Yesterday, the EPA began its series of listening sessions scheduled to take place in large urban centers: New York City, Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Boston, San Francisco, Washington DC, Dallas, Seattle, Philadelphia, and Chicago.

“Montanans care about proposed federal regulations impacting their livelihood, their public schools, their utility rates, their communities, and their environment, and they deserve to be heard on this,” Attorney General Tim Fox said. “It’s mind boggling that the EPA isn’t holding a single session in a state that relies directly on coal for affordable energy, family-wage jobs, and economic development. It’s as if the regulators don’t want to hear from the hardworking folks who will suffer most under the onerous regulations they’re considering. The EPA needs to come here to Montana – to a place like Colstrip or Billings – and listen to what our citizens have to say.”

The listening sessions are designed to gather public input on the agency’s implementation of Rule 111(d) of the Clean Air Act to regulate emissions from power plants. The proposed regulations are targeted at the very coal-fired power generation that provides Montanans with reliable, affordable electricity. Since Montana has more recoverable coal reserves than any other state, the regulations could be all the more devastating.

“The EPA shouldn’t be afraid of listening to viewpoints they won’t hear in New York City,” Fox said.

In his letter to EPA Administrator McCarthy, Attorney General Fox echoed President Obama and members of his administration in calling for an “all of the above” approach to energy policy. “EPA’s recently announced proposals run contrary to a balanced energy approach,” Fox told McCarthy.

Read Attorney General Fox’s letter to EPA Administrator McCarthy here.

-END-
Contact: John Barnes
406-444-2031 | johnbarnes@mt.gov

North Dakota has pumped up its crude production in August to 914,617 b/d, about 1.1% higher than the revised July output of 904,927 b/d, according to the North Dakota Industrial Commission.

The preliminary July crude output published last month was at 871,459 b/d.

June output was 821,596 b/d, and May production was at 811,262 b/d.

The Bakken crude output makes up more than 90% of North Dakota’s total oil production.

The number of producing wells in August rose to 9,452 from 9,324 in July and 9,096 in June.

North Dakota is the second-largest oil producer in the U.S., with Texas holding on to the No. 1 spot and Alaska third. Bakken crude is playing a growing role in the U.S. coastal refineries’ crude slate as pipelines, rail and ships offer delivery solutions to the once-landlocked crude output.

–Edgar Ang, eang@opisnet.com, www.opisnet.com
Originally published by Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), Gaithersburg, MD. Additional reproduction is strictly prohibited. For more information on other news, contact Scott Berhang, +1 301.287.2332.

The recent “discovery” of the giant Bakken oil field, described as the “largest continuous oil accumulation ever assessed by the US Geological Survey,” bodes fundamental changes for western North Dakota and eastern Montana. Lots of people are coming! Western North Dakota now faces a daunting challenge: building infrastructure that supports a new way of life and culture.

Just ask Don Nickell, president and COO of Nakota Development, LLC. The morning Nakota opened their two Value Place extended-stay hotels in Williston in September 2012, “we had people sitting in their cars in the parking lot, waiting for us to open the doors,” said Nickell.

Since then, Williston Value Place hotels have achieved enviable occupancy rates (>95 percent in August). They have also exceeded their competitors’ occupancy % for the past four months, which is a significant achievement given they have 248 rooms versus their competitor’s properties which average only 90-100 rooms.

Nickell is confident more customers are waiting. He’s in good company. Lynn Helms, director of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources, told an audience at the 2012 North Dakota Association of Oil and Gas Producing Counties that western North Dakota can expect about 250,000 additional people settling west of Highway 83 to help produce oil and natural gas.

It’s more than just about oil and gas, however.  Housing and lodging are of particular concern. Mike Anderson, director of the North Dakota Housing Finance Agency expects population growth to continue in the state for at least the next 15 to 20 years.

While many thousands of men are today living in temporary man camps, a gaping supply hole remains for those seeking lodging for the many two-to-four-month assignments typical in the Bakken and other shale oil regions.  There are thousands of geologists, landsmen, technicians, engineers, field and construction workers and service personnel in need of housing and lodging.

Nakota Development is already two steps ahead in the game; they acquired the Value Place franchise territory rights for North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming.  They promptly built two hotels in Williston and recently completed a third in July in Dickinson.  Nakota has also purchased, or acquired options on additional land for future construction. Their construction of another Value Place recently began in Watford City and is expected to open in spring of 2014.

The master plan, according to Nakota CEO Art Cahoon, is to invest an estimated $200 million over the next five years in the development of twenty new extended stay hotels in the Bakken and other developing US shale oil regions. Nakota’s willingness to take the early equity risks and invest millions of their own money to build their first two hotels and complete them on schedule brought Nakota a rare commodity in the Bakken: CREDIBILITY.

Even today, with credit availability increasing, Nakota continues to invest significant equity in each of its hotels.  Despite the Bakken’s significant construction and operating challenges, including the scarcity of materials and high labor costs, Nakota has established itself as the gold standard developer and operator in the Bakken. “Current investors, which include all of Nakota’s senior management team, are enjoying very attractive returns on their investment,” said Cahoon.

Click to see Value Place in the Oct/Nov Issue of the Bakken Oil Business Journal.

Value Place is the largest economy extended stay franchise in America. The Value Place Brand comes from the management team that created and developed lodging brands such as Residence Inn (now owned by Marriott), Summerfield Suites (Hyatt) and Candlewood Suites (Intercontinental). In 2011, Value Place was recognized again as a Top 50 Franchise by the Franchise Business Review’s 2011 Franchisee Satisfaction Awards.  Value Place was also recognized in USA Today in 2010 as a recession-proof business.